Learning from credit default

Abstract

Utilizing a unique P2P dataset, this study employs the PSM-DID method to explore the learning effect brought about by default events on investors. The findings reveal that investors who experience their first default event demonstrate an improved ability to select a higher-quality project the next time. Notably, this positive effect is more pronounced when facing substantial defaults, as opposed to cases where overdue principal and interest are eventually settled. Investors' initial confidence in defaulted projects contributes to a greater enhancement of their investment skills. Furthermore, the beneficial impacts of defaulted events diminish as investors’ investment experience accumulates.