Abstract

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for education include the goal that “all youth...achieve literacy and numeracy” (Target 4.6). Achieving some absolute standard of learning for all children is a key element of global equity in education. Using the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) data from India and Pakistan, and Uwezo data from Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda that test all children of given ages, whether in school or not, on simple measures of learning in math, reading (local language), and English, we quantify the role of achieving equality between the richest 20% and the poorest 40% in terms of grade attainment and learning achievement toward accomplishing the global equity goal of universal numeracy and literacy for all children. First, excluding Kenya, equalizing grade attainment between children from rich and poor households would only close between 8% (India) and 25% (Pakistan) of the gap to universal numeracy, and between 8% (Uganda) and 28% (Pakistan) of the gap to universal literacy. Second, children from the poorest 40% of households tend to have lower performance in literacy and numeracy at each grade. If such children had the learning profiles of children from rich households, we would close between 16% (Pakistan and Uganda) and 34% (India) of the gap to universal numeracy, and between 13% (Uganda) and 44% (India) of the gap to universal literacy. This shows that the “hidden exclusion” (WDR, 2018) of lower learning at the same grade levels—a gap that emerges in the earliest grades—is a substantial and often larger part of the equity gap compared to the more widely documented gaps in enrollment and grade attainment. Third, even with complete equality in grade attainment and learning achievement, children from poor households would be far from the equity goal of universal numeracy and literacy, as even children from the richest 20% of households are far from universal mastery of basic reading and math by ages 12-13. Achieving universal literacy and numeracy to accomplish even a minimal standard of global absolute equity will require more than just closing the rich-poor learning gap, it will take progress in learning for all.

Highlights

  • The enrollment drive of the past few decades has been enormously successful at getting children to school

  • If children from poor households had exactly the same learning and grade attainment as children from rich households, how far would they be from achieving universal literacy or numeracy—how much of the gap to the global equity goal of universal literacy and numeracy will be erased if there was complete within-country equality across the two asset groups?

  • In the first hypothetical scenario, we explore what happens to learning levels if all children from poor households have the grade attainment profiles of children from rich households while keeping their existing learning levels

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Summary

Introduction

The enrollment drive of the past few decades has been enormously successful at getting children to school. We use ASER data for India and Pakistan, and Uwezo data for Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda as this data has four key features: (1) all children aged 5 to 16 are in the sampling frame, not just those enrolled in school or those in a given grade, (2) all children are given a similar assessment, (3) the child’s highest grade of enrollment is reported, and (4) there is data on assets that can be used to construct a proxy for the wealth of each child’s household. If children from poor households had exactly the same learning and grade attainment as children from rich households, how far would they be from achieving universal literacy or numeracy—how much of the gap to the global equity goal of universal literacy and numeracy will be erased if there was complete within-country equality across the two asset groups? Simple division) change if they had the same grade attainment as a child from a rich household while keeping their existing learning profile? How much would the likelihood that a child from a poor household is literate or numerate change if they had the learning profile of a child from a rich household while keeping their existing grade attainment profile? If children from poor households had exactly the same learning and grade attainment as children from rich households, how far would they be from achieving universal literacy or numeracy—how much of the gap to the global equity goal of universal literacy and numeracy will be erased if there was complete within-country equality across the two asset groups?

Conceptual Framework
Sample
Learning Measure
Construction of Wealth Index
SD est
Learning Trajectories by Age and Wealth
Learning Trajectory by Age and Wealth
Grade Attainment Profiles
Descriptive Grade-Based Learning Profiles
Counter-factual Calculations
Counter-factual Scenario 1
Counter-factual Scenario 2
Counter-factual Scenario 3
Findings
Conclusion

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