Learning ensembles of process-based models for high accurately evaluating the one-hundred-year carbon sink potential of China’s forest ecosystem

Abstract

China’s forests play a vital role in the global carbon cycle through the absorption of atmospheric CO2 to mitigate climate change caused by the increase of anthropogenic CO2. It is essential to evaluate the carbon sink potential (CSP) of China’s forest ecosystem. Combining NDVI, field-investigated, and vegetation and soil carbon density data modeled by process-based models, we developed the state-of-the-art learning ensembles model of process-based models (the multi-model random forest ensemble (MMRFE) model) to evaluate the carbon stocks of China’s forest ecosystem in historical (1982–2021) and future (2022–2081, without NDVI-driven data) periods. Meanwhile, we proposed a new carbon sink index (CSindex) to scientifically and accurately evaluate carbon sink status and identify carbon sink intensity zones, reducing the probability of random misjudgments as a carbon sink. The new MMRFE models showed good simulation results in simulating forest vegetation and soil carbon density in China (significant positive correlation with the observed values, r = 0.94, P < 0.001). The modeled results show that a cumulative increase of 1.33 Pg C in historical carbon stocks of forest ecosystem is equivalent to 48.62 Bt CO2, which is approximately 52.03% of the cumulative increased CO2 emissions in China from 1959 to 2018. In the next 60 years, China’s forest ecosystem will absorb annually 1.69 (RCP45 scenario) to 1.85 (RCP85 scenario) Bt CO2. Compared with the carbon stock in the historical period, the cumulative absorption of CO2 by China’s forest ecosystem in 2032–2036, 2062–2066, and 2077–2081 are approximately 11.25–39.68, 110.66–121.49 and 101.31–111.11 Bt CO2, respectively. In historical and future periods, the medium and strong carbon sink intensity regions identified by the historical CSindex covered 65% of the total forest area, cumulative absorbing approximately 31.60 and 65.83–72.22 Bt CO2, respectively. In the future, China’s forest ecosystem has a large CSP with a non-continuous increasing trend. However, the CSP should not be underestimated. Notably, the medium carbon sink intensity region should be the priority for natural carbon sequestration action. This study not only provides an important methodological basis for accurately estimating the future CSP of forest ecosystem but also provides important decision support for future forest ecosystem carbon sequestration action.