Learning and hypothesis testing in probabilistic inference tasks

Abstract

The relation between learning of probabilistic inference tasks and the availability of correct hypotheses for the tasks in individual subjects was investigated in two experiments. The results showed that having the correct hypotheses as measured before learning the tasks was neither a sufficient nor a necessary condition for learning the task. It was concluded that the hypothesis measurements are not reliable enough to allow predictions on an individual level. The results also showed that subjects have not only the four basic functions: positive linear, negative linear, U‐shaped and inversely U‐shaped, in their hypothesis hierarchies but also J‐shaped functions. That the subjects can leam such functions is thus no discodinnation of the hypotheses sampling conception of learning as assumed in earlier studies.