Abstract
Electricity plays a crucial role in the socio-economic development of any country. Developing countries, however, unlike their developed counterparts, do not have electricity markets that are fully satisfied, nor are they ‘laden’ with large-scale infrastructure that could create inertia about making the transition. The objective of this paper is to identify the potential trajectories for unmet electricity markets in sub-Saharan Africa to leapfrog to renewable energy as they strive to accelerate access to electricity. The following key drivers of renewable energy leapfrogging in unmet electricity markets were identified from the review: the need to achieve sustainability targets; the availability of renewable energy resources on a sufficient scale; growing investment in renewable energy; maturing niche renewable technologies; a weakening renewable energy cost hypothesis; and a growing population and increasing urbanisation. The paper further conceptualised three potential transition paradigms: revolutionary, scattered , and coned pathways. These paradigms were defined by the pace and magnitude of the transition that can be observed, and depend on the intensity of the identified drivers in a specific unmet electricity market. The paper argues that the largely unmet electricity market in sub-Saharan Africa provides an opportunity to leapfrog the fossil-intensive energy regime to adopt a renewable energy regime.
Highlights
The global society is increasingly energy-reliant, resulting in fast-paced energy demands, especially in the form of electricity
It is apparent that an over-reliance on conventional energy would hinder the attainment of the seventh sustainable development goals (SDG7) – that is, universal access to modern energy
This paper has examined the potential of, and opportunity for, leapfrogging to renewable energy in unmet electricity markets in sub-Saharan Africa – a region characterised by a relatively small energy infrastructure that is accentuated by the size of its unmet electricity markets
Summary
Modelling and Metabolism Assessment (uMAMA), Centre for Complex Systems in Transition (CST), Stellenbosch University, South Africa. The objective of this paper is to identify the potential trajectories for unmet electricity markets in sub-Saharan Africa to leapfrog to renewable energy as they strive to accelerate access to electricity. The paper further conceptualised three potential transition paradigms: revolutionary, scattered, and coned pathways These paradigms were defined by the pace and magnitude of the transition that can be observed, and depend on the intensity of the identified drivers in a specific unmet electricity market. The paper argues that the largely unmet electricity market in sub-Saharan Africa provides an opportunity to leapfrog the fossilintensive energy regime to adopt a renewable energy regime. Die doel van hierdie artikel is om die potensiële trajekte vir onontginde elektrisiteitsmarkte in sub-Sahara-Afrika te identifiseer om oor te skakel na hernubare energie in hul strewe daarna om toegang tot elektrisiteit te versnel. Die argument word gemaak dat die onbevredigde elektrisiteitsmark in die sub-Sahara mark geleenthede bied om die fosielbrandstof-intensiewe energie-opwekking verby te steek en sodoende ‘n hernubare energie regime in werking te stel
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