Leakage and spillover effects of forest management on carbon storage: theoretical insights from a simple model

Federico Magnani,Roderick C Dewar,Marco Borghetti

doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2008.00386.x

Federico Magnani, Roderick C Dewar + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2008.00386.x

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Abstract

Leakage (spillover) refers to the unintended negative (positive) consequences of forest carbon (C) management in one area on C storage elsewhere. For example, the local C storage benefit of less intensive harvesting in one area may be offset, partly or completely, by intensified harvesting elsewhere in order to meet global timber demand. We present the results of a theoretical study aimed at identifying the key factors determining leakage and spillover, as a prerequisite for more realistic numerical studies.We use a simple model of C storage in managed forest ecosystems and their wood products to derive approximate analytical expressions for the leakage induced by decreasing the harvesting frequency of existing forest, and the spillover induced by establishing new plantations, assuming a fixed total wood production from local and remote (non-local) forests combined.We find that leakage and spillover depend crucially on the growth rates, wood product lifetimes and woody litter decomposition rates of local and remote forests. In particular, our results reveal critical thresholds for leakage and spillover, beyond which effects of forest management on remote C storage exceed local effects. Order of magnitude estimates of leakage indicate its potential importance at global scales.

Highlights

Forests in the northern hemisphere currently act as a substantial carbon (C) sink, sequestering 0.6–0.7 Pg of C per year (Goodale et al, 2002) and contributing to the mitigation of climatic change
A reduction in timber extraction from boreal and temperate forests has been recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), which warned, that the expected local benefits in C storage could be partly offset by increased timber harvesting elsewhere in order to meet global timber demand, resulting in C ‘leakage’ on a global scale
The model describes the per hectare C storage in the tree biomass, litter, soil and wood products of a managed forest ecosystem

Summary

Introduction

Forests in the northern hemisphere currently act as a substantial carbon (C) sink, sequestering 0.6–0.7 Pg of C per year (Goodale et al, 2002) and contributing to the mitigation of climatic change. Changes in local forest management aimed at increasing forest lifespan and standing biomass may have a significant effect on the global C balance (Schulze et al, 2000; Magnani et al, 2007) and could have contributed to the sink activity observed in the northern hemisphere. A reduction in timber extraction from boreal and temperate forests has been recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), which warned, that the expected local benefits in C storage could be partly offset by increased timber harvesting elsewhere in order to meet global timber demand, resulting in C ‘leakage’ on a global scale. Spillover benefits might even outweigh the C stored in the plantations themselves and prove the most important contribution of intensive forestry to the global C cycle (Dixon et al, 1994)

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