Leadership in Agriculture: Artificial Intelligence for Modelling and Forecasting Growth in the Industry

Abstract

The paper investigates the growth rates of agriculture as one of the leading industries, which serves as a catalyst for economic development and is intended to provide the population with food products and industry with raw materials. The main aim of the conducted research is to analyze the impact of agricultural reforms on the agricultural growth rates in Algeria. The systematic analysis of literary sources and methods of addressing the problem of agricultural growth indicates the existence of socio-economic, political, and institutional inhibitors of effective agricultural reclamation of the agricultural sector. Five inputs were used as parameters characterizing the development of the agricultural industry. These are the volume of agricultural financing, the volume of exploited agricultural area, the volume of developed agricultural machinery, the volume of agricultural labor, and the rural level of agricultural growth. Forecasting indicators of the development of the agricultural industry was carried out using the methods of min max scaler tool, ReLU, and RMSE. A machine learning model from the Python language built the artificial neural network model. The statistical data of the Ministry of Finance and Agriculture and the World Bank served as the information base for the study of the relationship between the amount of adopted and implemented agrarian reforms. The link between the number of agrarian reforms adopted and expressed was investigated using data from several areas of statistics, the Ministry of Finance and Agriculture, and the World Bank. The modelling results proved the positive influence of bank financing, the volume of exploited agricultural areas and the number of the population employed in agriculture on the growth rates of agriculture in Algeria in the long term. An increase in agricultural mechanization by one unit (tractors and agricultural equipment per 100 km2) contributes to the growth of indicators of agricultural development by 0.21%, and an increase in the number of people employed in agriculture per million will lead to a rise in the level of agricultural development by 12 %. Thus, the results of econometric modelling proved the positive impact of agricultural reforms on the development of agriculture after 2022. It contributes to the increase in the level of employment of the population and, ultimately, will have a positive effect on the future rate of economic growth in Algeria.