Abstract
How useful are polls taken a few months before a French presidential election for predicting the decisive second round ballot? We address this question from two points of view: (a) a retrospective angle based on the incumbent candidate record; and (b) a prospective and comparative perspective centred around the images of the main candidates. According to the retrospective dimension, Nicolas Sarkozy's chances of re-election appear rather bleak. His low level of approval – the lowest for an incumbent candidate during the Fifth Republic – is most likely to pave the way to the first Socialist victory since 1988. The relatively positive image of Nicolas Sarkozy, on the other hand, will possibly contribute to a tighter race than expected.
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