Lead Time Prediction Using Simulation in Leather Shoe Manufacturing

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to acquire lead time prediction on the basis of actual data to optimize it. Most Manufacturing industries experiences problems of lead time prediction. The determination of planning values for manufacturing lead times has been viewed both as a problem of estimating independent, uncontrollable variables, and as a control problem, where emphasis is placed on managing the average lead times to match predetermined norms. Once a new order with specific and known processing requirements enters to manufacturing system, an exact lead time estimate is assigned to it that is based on the manufacturing current status. Thus, the customers of the case company was being influenced by unpredictable lead time. As a result of this, the customers were unable to get the product of shoe on time due to indeterminate and fluctuating lead time. To come +up with acceptable lead time, Monte Carlo and Arena simulation tools were used to analyze optimal lead time. The finding of the tools simulation resulted in fixed lead time and order cycle numbers for the products order over specified periods (what is the final result reported by simulation?)