Lead market learning in the development and diffusion of electric vehicles

Abstract

Lead markets (LM) are defined as regions or countries that are the first to adopt a new technology or product class in significant quantities due to the presence of natural and self-created advantages. The LM concept has been used to explain the global diffusion of several new technologies and products, but one previously neglected LM benefit is the potential to learn from early adopter experiences, which is addressed here by examining the electric vehicle (EV) lead markets of Norway and California to determine the relative importance of technology improvements and EV supporting public policies in predicting more widespread EV adoption. EV supporting public policies are found to be primarily responsible for early adoption, while technical deficiencies and high prices remain the major impediments to more widespread EV diffusion. Thus the value of the current study to industry and government is the demonstration of the ‘real world’ data available from LM adopters, and its usefulness in the evaluation of green technology diffusion prospects and supports.