Lead and Lag Times of Countries in a Gentler World

Abstract

Are we moving towards a gentler world, and if so, how fast are we moving? Using data for 25 countries from 1991 to 2012, a positive trend is observed in four indicators—Welzel’s Emancipative Values Index and Gender Equality sub-index, Locus of Control and Nahkur’s Societal Index of Interpersonal Destructiveness (SIID). Applying the simple logistic growth pattern over time, from a floor of 0 to a ceiling of 1, it is apparent that gender equality scores and locus of control are past their fastest growth phase (middle part of the stretched-out S-curve). Emancipative Values Index is in its fastest growth phase, but as its S curve is much more stretched out, so its increase is slow. Normalized SIID is already in its late growth phase, close to the ceiling at 1; thus its further increase is bound to be quite slow. We also looked at the lead and lag times of individual countries compared to world average. This is more informative than saying “Country A is below the world average by x units”. The average lag time was by far the largest for Russia, Ukraine and Moldova (56–42 years). The average lead time was by far the largest for Sweden and Norway (116 and 42 years). Central East Europe was the only region where index values rose rather steadily. Post-2012 increase rate is bound to be slower, feeding frustration.