Latin America: Political economy and geopolitics since 1945

Abstract

Abstract The paper argues that, while a historical resume of Latin America since 1945 is made difficult by the sheer scope of the topic, the exercise can be useful, if only to counter short‐term “amnesiac” assumptions. It divides the analysis into three sections; the economic, political and international. The first section, noting the significance of the pivotal decade of the 1940s, outlines the policies of import‐substitution which have characterized much (not all) of Latin America since that decade, and describes their subsequent replacement by the current “neo‐liberal” model. The second section tries to discern the political correlates of these contrasting economic models, arguing that, despite the wide variation in post‐1945 political trajectories, the import substituting industrialization model tended to favour certain groups and contained the potential for durable social coalitions. While neo‐liberalism similarly rewards its friends and punishes its enemies, its capacity to generate durable coalitions seems questionable; its association with democracy may be more contingent and cosmetic than often assumed; and the acclaimed “success” of certain neo‐liberal leaders (Salinas, Fujimori, Menem) may depend on negative factors—weak opposition, the political pulverization of society—as much as any positive and enduring legitimacy. Finally, the paper locates US policy towards Latin America within a broad historical context, seeing the Cold War as an episode whose passing may presage less afresh, “pluralist” vision from the north, than a search for simple stereotypes with which to interpret a complex and sobering reality.