Latest theoretical approaches to uncertainty modelling in enterprise management: historical, conceptual and instrumental aspects

Abstract

The article is devoted to fuzzy-set and interval approaches to modelling uncertainty within the issues of enterprise management. The nodal events of origin and development of fuzzy set theory, the main stages of formation and development of fuzzy-set approach as an applied methodology are considered. Particular attention is paid to the economic application of fuzzy set theory, including in relation to applied problems of enterprise management. The historical, conceptual and instrumental aspects of interval methodology, which is based on the apparatus of interval mathematics or analysis, as another significant approach to modelling uncertainty in economics and business, are highlighted. It is concluded that fuzzy set theory and interval analysis form a mathematical basis for powerful approaches to modelling uncertainty, which cannot be described using traditional probabilistic-statistical methods. Methods and models based on these theories are successfully used for a wide range of enterprise management tasks. It is proved that in the field of investment analysis and business planning one of the most important achievements of the theory of fuzzy sets should be considered the introduction of fuzzy numbers and the development of fuzzy arithmetic. Their use allows to carry out the entire volume of analytical work and financial and economic calculations for specific tasks in these areas at the level of fuzzy-multiple descriptions, starting from the assessment of initial parameters and ending with the finding and analysis of the resulting indicators. In general, the significance of both fuzzy set theory and interval analysis goes far beyond purely economic issues. The information presented in the publication convincingly proves that both the theory of fuzzy sets and interval analysis now determine the high degree of development of their theoretical and conceptual basis and instrumentalapplied component. At the same time, the issue of further formation and development of these methodologies remains relevant.