Lateral holding behaviour of torpedo piles in spatially variable soil: Development of a probabilistic design approach

Abstract

Offshore torpedo piles are increasingly being utilised in deepwater oil and gas development as part of a taut-leg mooring system. As these piles commonly experience inclined loading in service, accurately determining their lateral holding capacity is crucial. Despite the fact that natural soil characteristics exhibit significant spatial variability, existing studies are mostly deterministic in nature. This paper presents probabilistic analyses of the lateral holding capacity of torpedo piles, explicitly considering the spatial variability of soil shear strength. Large deformation finite element calculations are combined with three-dimensional random field generation in a Monte Carlo framework. The results show that while spatial variability does not apparently alter the failure mechanism of laterally loaded torpedo piles, it significantly influences their holding capacity. The routine deterministic calculation, neglecting spatial variability, would probably yield unconservative estimates. To address this challenge, a probabilistic Broms method is developed, which enables engineers to produce lateral holding capacity estimates with varying confidence levels, using local strength data rather than central tendency. Furthermore, endeavours are also made to calibrate the safety factor, extensively employed in deterministic design practices, from a probabilistic perspective, providing practicing engineers with a viable alternative in scenarios where a local strength profile is unavailable.