Latent heterogeneity in long-term trajectories of body mass index in older adults.

Abstract

To evaluate latent heterogeneity in long-term trajectories of body weight in older adults. We analyzed 14-year longitudinal data on 10,314 older adults from the Health and Retirement Study. Semiparametric mixture models identified latent subgroups of similar trajectories of body mass index (BMI). Five distinct trajectory subgroups emerged: normal starting-BMI with accelerated increase over time (trajectory #1), overweight and increasing (trajectory #2), borderline-obese and increasing (trajectory #3), obese and increasing (trajectory #4), and morbidly obese with decelerating gain (trajectory #5). Blacks and Hispanics had greater risk of membership in ascending high-BMI trajectory groups. Females had approximately half the risk of following overweight and obese increasing BMI trajectories compared with males. Distinct latent subgroups of BMI trajectories and significant racial/ethnic and gender trajectory heterogeneity exist in the older adult population. The propensity of men and minorities to experience high-risk BMI trajectories may exacerbate existing disparities in morbidity/ mortality in older age.