Latent earning capacity and the race marriage gap

Robert Nakosteen,Michael Zimmer,Salvatore Ercolano

doi:10.1080/23322039.2019.1609155

Abstract

One of the most persistent socioeconomic phenomena in the process of family formation is the relatively low rate of marriage by black men and women. The enduring conventional wisdom has been that l...

Highlights

The United States has experienced a persistently low rate of marriage in the black population relative to the white population, and the marriage race gap appears to have increased over time
Using a variety of metrics and index measures that act as controls for regional supplies of potential spouses, a common conclusion has been that the race gap persists even in the presence of those controls
The following statements are representative of that view: Schoen and Kluegel (1988, p. 904): ... improved economic conditions, combined with negative attitudes toward marriage formed during childhood poverty, and dissonant beliefs about male and female roles may have led to greater decline in black marriage propensities

Summary

Introduction

The United States has experienced a persistently low rate of marriage in the black population relative to the white population, and the marriage race gap appears to have increased over time. Brien (1997) applies a discrete time logit model of marriage transition for females, while Raley (1996) uses a proportional hazard model for time to the formation of cohabitation unions or marriages by females Both studies conclude that the marriage market hypothesis of Wilson and Neckerman (1986) offers only a partial explanation of the marriage race gap. They argue that the race gap is illusory; after correcting for earnings, black males appear to marry at a rate that does not differ significantly from whites Their model is a static representation of marital status at a point in time and does not address transitions into marriage. Controlling for marriage markets in a geographic context and using various constructs to measure demographic ratios of available spouses, the white-black marriage gap persists in the majority of studies It appears that earnings of single men and women play significant roles in transitions to marriage. The following section formulates a statistical framework for this approach

Statistical framework

Data and model specification

Results of estimation

Conclusion