Abstract
While the effect of weather on reproduction has been studied for many years in avian taxa, the rapid pace of climate change in arctic regions has added urgency to this question by changing the weather conditions species experience during breeding. Given this, it is important to understand how factors such as temperature, rain, snowfall, and wind affect reproduction both directly and indirectly (e.g. through their effects on food availability). In this study, we ask how weather factors and food availability influence daily survival rates of clutches in two arctic‐breeding migratory songbirds: the Lapland longspur Calcarius lapponicus, a circumpolar breeder, and Gambel's white‐crowned sparrow Zonotrichia leucophrys gambelii, which breeds in shrubby habitats across tundra, boreal and continental climates. To do this, we monitored clutch survival in these two species from egg‐lay through fledge at field sites located near Toolik Field Station (North Slope, Alaska) across 5 yr (2012–2016). Our results indicate that snowfall and cold temperatures decreased offspring survival rates in both species; although Lapland longspurs were more susceptible to snowfall. Food availability, quantified by pitfall sampling and sweep‐net sampling methods, had minimal effects on offspring survival. Some climate models predict increased precipitation for the Arctic with global warming, and in the Toolik region, total snow accumulation may be increasing. Placed in this context, our results suggest that changes in snow storms with climate change could have substantial consequences for reproduction in migratory songbirds breeding in the North American Arctic.
Highlights
Global climate change is rapidly altering natural systems (Parmesan 2006) by disrupting seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation (IPCC 2014) and increasing the occurrence of extreme events (Alexander et al 2006; Mitchell et al 2006; Tebaldi et al 2006)
Our results show that snowfall and low temperatures influence reproductive success in Lapland longspurs and Gambel’s white-crowned sparrows
This is consistent with our finding that the two years with the lowest nest survival rates (Fig. 4) were wetter than historical average climate during June (Alaska Climate Research Center and National Weather Service, 2017)
Summary
Global climate change is rapidly altering natural systems (Parmesan 2006) by disrupting seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation (IPCC 2014) and increasing the occurrence of extreme events (Alexander et al 2006; Mitchell et al 2006; Tebaldi et al 2006). To predict how climate change will affect populations, it is important to understand how demographic processes like offspring survival and recruitment into the breeding population are currently being affected. This requires understanding both how weather patterns are changing and how current temperature, precipitation, wind, and food availability affect reproduction. Understanding how changes in climate will affect a given species requires considering both direct and indirect effects of weather on nestling survival
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