Abstract
Internal waves (IWs) mitigate thermal stress and provide refugia for corals against increasingly frequent mass bleaching. However, climate events may bring uncertainty regarding the resistance of such refugia. Here, using in situ observation data in the Andaman Sea (AS), we conduct a case study in which a monsoon anomaly associated with an El Niño event threatens IW coral refugia. IW cooling in the AS coral reefs is modulated by the thermocline depth variation, which is driven, to a significant extent, by Kelvin wave signals from the equator. In the pre-monsoon period, distinct variations in IW cooling and surface heating form a time window of quickly-growing cumulative heat exposure. The El Niño induces a typical two-week delay of summer monsoon onset, which prolongs the duration of thermal stress growth and brings severe bleaching risk to corals. As global warming increases the frequency of extreme El Niño events, IW coral refugia will face great challenges in the future.
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