Late Holocene Hydro-Climate Variability in the Eastern Mediterranean: A Spatial Multi-Proxy Approach

Dimitrios Bassukas,Pavlos Avramidis,Alexandros Emmanouilidis

doi:10.3390/w13223252

Abstract

A total of thirteen (13) paleoclimatic coastal and hinterland archives of the broader eastern Mediterranean region were collected and examined statistically in search of underlying trends for the period 2800 to 200 BP. For each archive, a proxy record representative of hydro-climatic changes was selected, normalized using z-factors to facilitate intercomparison, and analyzed statistically. Multivariate statistical analysis was performed using a clustering analysis (HCA) and dimension reduction (PCA), which led to groupings of similar records temporally, and allowed the identification of spatially underlying modes of variability. Two main modes of variability were identified, further supporting complex trajectories of paleoclimatic evolution in the region. The first mode was identified for sites presenting a trend from a wetter to an overall drier phase, with respective changes at major phase shifts at 1400 BP and 1100 BP. All sites were from the southern and northern Balkan region, as well as southwestern Turkey. A contrasting dry to wet trend was identified for a site in the Peloponnese (Greece) and the Levant, with a major phase shift at around 750 BP. The inclusion of different proxies from very different environmental settings and the 200-year window has complicated the connection of established short-term climatic events to the study’s findings.

Highlights

Global climate change in the last decades has been a hot topic for geoscientific research and public discussion alike, mainly around human-induced warming
The dissimilar effect [2] and heterogeneity of climate change in different regions have emphasized the need for regional assessments
For the eastern Mediterranean region, which is the area of interest in this study, current warming is projected to result in a severe decrease in precipitation [7]

Summary

Introduction

Global climate change in the last decades has been a hot topic for geoscientific research and public discussion alike, mainly around human-induced warming. With this warming being unambiguously attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse emissions, quantifying it, making projections, as well as preparing for future change have brought up major challenges. The dissimilar effect [2] and heterogeneity of climate change in different regions have emphasized the need for regional assessments In this regional context, the Mediterranean has been characterized as a climate change ‘’hot-spot” [3,4], with an urgent need for adaption to its effects [5,6]. For the eastern Mediterranean region, which is the area of interest in this study, current warming is projected to result in a severe decrease in precipitation [7]

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