Late fertility in Europe: some comparative and historical data

Abstract

Given the substantial increase in late fertility (at ages 35 and older) in the last few years in Western countries, the paper raises the question of what factors have caused this new trend, and how likely it is to continue. Late fertility is measured using the sum of age-specific fertility rates at 35 or more; its contribution to the total fertility rate (in % of the total fertility rate) and the proportion of first childbirths in this fertility is then computed. Late fertility among men is assessed using the same method, where the necessary data are available. The data analysed sometimes date back to the 18th century for women (Sweden), and the early 20th century for men (in France). Late fertility is now much lower than it used to be. Despite the current increase--which can be traced back to the early 1980s for most Western countries, and appears to be much more recent and limited in the former socialist countries--current levels are very low compared with those of the past, among men as well as women. Reduced family size was the main factor in that decline, which became more pronounced as a result of women having a first child at younger ages. The reversal of the trend is due only to postponed childbearing, which must be viewed as part of a general trend towards postponement of all demographic events. More and more of the children born in such circumstances are thus first children. Very late fertility (at 40 or more) has increased, though only slightly, for men as well as women, and age 45 seems to be a limit beyond which few are prepared to have children. Social norms concerning the age limit for a person to have a child could account for the differences from one country to another in that respect. Late fertility is likely to continue increasing as long as fertility continues to decrease among young people. However, the increase will continue to be due mostly to the "younger" age groups (under 40 for women, under 45 for men); both biological constraints and social norms probably play a part in the stagnation of very late fertility levels.