Last chance tourism in alpine regions: last chance to ski?

Abstract

The multi-billion dollar ski sector is highly vulnerable to changes in both regional and local climate and has been projected to experience decreased natural snow reliability resulting in decreased season length, increased snow-making requirements, increased operating costs, decreased revenues in association with decreased visitation, and the closure of ski area operations (Abegg et al. 2007; Scott et al. 2008; Dawson and Scott 2010). Variable climate conditions experienced in the past have already influenced the closure of many ski areas internationally. For example, the consecutively poor snow seasons experienced in North America through the late 1980s in part caused the closure of hundreds of ski resorts across the US Northeast region (see NELSAP 2010). Simultaneously ski resorts in the European Alps experienced a series of snow-scarce winters near the end of the 1980s and into the 1990s. During this time Switzerland experienced average revenue losses of 20 per cent (1989-90) (Abegg 1996), and South Tyrol (Italy) ski lift transports were reduced by one-third (1988-89 and 1989-90) (Steiger 2011a). This trend towards ski area closures and ski resort bankruptcy is projected tocontinue as ski businesses become unable to afford the cost of adapting to newer and warmer climate systems (i.e. by investing in high efficiency snow-making technology, moving to higher elevations, diversifying product offerings such as snow tubing, retail, pools, bars, etc.) (see Scott and McBoyle 2007). If these projections hold true, it is possible that ‘last chance tourism’ (LCT) may become a reality for some highly vulnerable alpine ski regions before the end of the twentyfirst century. But because LCT is about perceptions and responses of individuals who value or desire to experience a particular resource that is at risk (see Lemelin et al. 2010), the future implications of expected bio-physical impacts will depend heavily on the behavioural responses of individuals. For example, it is important to try to understand how tourists might react if they knew or felt that it would be their last chance to ski at a particular resort or in a certain geographic region. A common behavioural response to changed recreational conditions (i.e. such as the closure of a local ski area) involves substituting the activity that is no longer available for an all-together different activity, changing the timing of participation, or travelling to a different location in order to continue to participate (Iso-Ahola 1986). Exactly how individuals react to last chances to ski will play an important role in the overall vulnerability of the sector and will also aid policy and decision makers in the development and implementation of adaptive strategies and plans. This chapter discusses the implications of LCT for the alpine ski sector by outlining the relative vulnerability of the industry and discussing expected behavioural responses of ski tourists to ‘last chances to ski’.