Abstract
Rodents are classical model species to investigate spatial synchrony in population fluctuation. Yet, previous studies have been strongly biased geographically toward high latitude (boreal ecosystem) and limited in their spatial scale, i.e. few sampling sites separated by a few tens of kilometers. Both aspects currently limit our understanding of rodent population dynamics across space. In this study we investigate vole population synchrony at a large spatial scale in central Europe. We used long-term breeding success of a vole-eating raptor specialist, the European kestrel, as an indicator of vole abundance. We first demonstrate that the productivity of kestrels is highly dependent on the availability of voles and as such is a good proxy of vole abundance. Secondly, we assessed the spatial synchrony of kestrel productivity and its scaling. We found that kestrel productivity fluctuated synchronously at a large spatial scale, up to a distance of 300 km. This result suggests that vole populations in central Europe varied in synchrony at large spatial scales, similarly as in northern latitudes. The most likely mechanism resulting in such large scale synchrony of vole populations is synchronized density-independent environmental conditions.
Highlights
Spatial population synchrony, i.e., the fact that populations in different locations exhibit correlated fluctuations, has been subject to intensive research since the early-stage of ecological research (Elton, 1924; Moran, 1953)
In this study we investigate vole population synchrony at a large spatial scale in central Europe
Spatial population synchrony may occur as a consequence of density-independent synchronized environmental conditions (i.e., Moran effect; Moran, 1953; Hudson and Cattadori, 1999), individual dispersal among populations (Bjørnstad et al, 1999; Koenig, 1999) or due to the synchronizing effect of density-dependent trophic interaction, e.g., highly mobile predators or parasite–host systems (Norrdahl and Korpimäki, 1996; Koenig, 1999)
Summary
I.e., the fact that populations in different locations exhibit correlated fluctuations, has been subject to intensive research since the early-stage of ecological research (Elton, 1924; Moran, 1953). Over the last decade studies have tried to disentangle the respective contribution of these three mechanisms to population synchrony (Bjørnstad et al, 1999; Liebhold et al, 2004). It appeared that their relative importance is largely a matter of scale and location. It is necessary to study population synchrony at different locations and spatial scales if we want to reach a comprehensive understanding of mechanisms driving population dynamics (Oli, 2019).
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