Abstract
Climate change is responsible for increased frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events, such as marine heatwaves (MHWs). Within eastern boundary current systems, MHWs have profound impacts on temperature-nutrient dynamics that drive primary productivity. Bull kelp (Nereocystis luetkeana) forests, a vital nearshore habitat, experienced unprecedented losses along 350 km of coastline in northern California beginning in 2014 and continuing through 2019. These losses have had devastating consequences to northern California communities, economies, and fisheries. Using a suite of in situ and satellite-derived data, we demonstrate that the abrupt ecosystem shift initiated by a multi-year MHW was preceded by declines in keystone predator population densities. We show strong evidence that northern California kelp forests, while temporally dynamic, were historically resilient to fluctuating environmental conditions, even in the absence of key top predators, but that a series of coupled environmental and biological shifts between 2014 and 2016 resulted in the formation of a persistent, altered ecosystem state with low primary productivity. Based on our findings, we recommend the implementation of ecosystem-based and adaptive management strategies, such as (1) monitoring the status of key ecosystem attributes: kelp distribution and abundance, and densities of sea urchins and their predators, (2) developing management responses to threshold levels of these attributes, and (3) creating quantitative restoration suitability indices for informing kelp restoration efforts.
Highlights
Climate change is responsible for increased frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events, such as marine heatwaves (MHWs)
Northern California kelp forests experienced environmental and biological perturbations that likely resulted from the combined effects of (1) the absence of top-down control on urchin populations during and after the NE Pacific MHW (Fig. 4c), (2) abrupt and persistent shifts in SST and nutrient conditions across the NE Pacific MHW that were beyond the physiological thresholds of optimum bull kelp growth and reproduction, and (3) an eruption in the population and grazing intensity of the herbivorous purple sea urchin
Previous work on the dynamics of marine and terrestrial ecosystem shifts sheds light on how these transitions in northern California were initiated by environmental events[35,43,44] and preceded by low ecosystem resilience
Summary
Climate change is responsible for increased frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events, such as marine heatwaves (MHWs). It can be difficult to distinguish the impacts of gradual (e.g., increasing mean temperatures) and irregular (e.g., increasing storm frequency) climate-induced shifts from changes in underlying naturally stochastic events (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) One such example is the ocean warming phenomenon of marine heatwaves (MHWs). While the direct ecological implications of MHWs on kelp forests are not fully understood, MHWs can alter ecosystem structure and functioning via shifts in kelp community species composition[15,23,24] leading to dramatic ecosystem shifts from healthy forest to algal turf reefs[25] or sea urchin barrens[26] These shifts between alternative stable states of these kelp forests often reflect cascading interactions across trophic levels through bottom-up (i.e., environmental influences on kelps) and topdown[27,28,29] (i.e., changes in predator control of grazers) processes
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