Large-Scale Data Analysis for Characterization of the Effect of Wind Forecast Errors on ETAs

Abstract

This paper characterizes wind forecast errors and evaluates their impact on times of arrival estimation within a few hundred miles of the airport. The specific wind forecast product analyzed in this paper is the Rapid Update Cycle 1-hr forecast with 40km resolution. The forecast data is compared to the data reported by the aircraft using the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System. The data are compared for the complete year of 2011 by analyzing arrival operations within 200 nmi of the Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. The paper describes two metrics: (i) wind magnitude metric, and (ii) wind uncertainty metrics. These metrics are defined in terms of the effect the wind has on the aircraft’s Estimated Time-of-Arrival (ETA) during its arrival phase of flight. Both metrics are computed for all the hourly forecasts between 6am to 10pm local time in the year 2011. The study illustrates the seasonal dependence of wind and wind uncertainty. It serves as the basis for selecting test days for NextGen concept evaluations in simulations.