Large-Scale CCS Constructability and Operational Challenges Assessment: A Decision Tool for New Users

Abstract

The worldwide CO2 capture capacity in 2018 is estimated at around 40 MtCO2 per annum. A number of global energy models indicate that achieving a 2°C climate scenario requires the capture and sequestration of approximately 1,000-2,000 MtCO2 per annum by 2030. This is the equivalent of fitting approximately 30GW of power capacity with CCS each year, comparable to the peak annual coal or nuclear construction rate following the 1970s oil crisis. However, the current growth rate in CCS languishes far below the required level, having only doubled from a miniscule base in 15 years. The sector suffers from a high rate of attrition in moving from project initiatives to deployment. The sector is highly exposed to policy and regulatory risks, challenges in defining liabilities and while a number of operational large scale CCS projects have been realised successfully, it is unfortunate that some first-of-a-kind coal and gas power CCS projects have been cancelled or experienced significant cost and/or time over-runs. This has impacted stakeholder’s confidence on projects delivery on time, budget and to specifications. Successful and cancelled CCS projects can bring invaluable learnings for the planning of future projects and define a clear route for the construction and operation of the future CCS generation. On the one hand, constructability is considered as the anticipation of construction constraints and the identification of opportunities in order to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of a project, since they may influence the decisions taken during the project life cycle. On the other hand, the analysis of operational challenges focuses on the main areas of attention related to the execution phase of already implemented CCS projects (new construction and retrofitting). In the past, IEAGHG commissioned several technical studies linked to large CCS projects. Moreover, an analysis of the equipment supply and capacity constraint which will impact on the CCS implementation was included in the study “Barriers to implementation of CCS-Capacity and constraints”. Although constructability and operational challenges have been identified in those reports, some aspects were unique for those locations and status of the initial facilities. IEAGHG identified the need to provide a guide on constructability and operation for new users, and commissioned Element Energy to undertake this study. The primary objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the constructability and operational factors for execution of large-scale CCS projects in power and industry. It develops a decision framework to inform planning, construction, commissioning and operation of future CCS projects, based on lessons learned from previous CCS projects. This constructability and operability decision framework identifies key decision areas and success factors – combining project characteristics, constraints and possible choices – that govern a large-scale CCS project. The study builds on up-to-date knowledge, information collected through a thorough literature review process, detailed project analysis, and the engagement of expert stakeholders involved in major CCS projects worldwide in different phases: development, construction, and operation. The study also explores the reasons for the cancellation of non-completed CCS projects and potential solutions for the underpinning problems identified. The main output of this study is a comprehensive guide for new entrants in the CCS business, providing guidance for the transition from planning to execution and from construction to operation, and on how to maintain stable operation along the plant life. Other public activities such as standardization can also benefit from this guide.