Large-scale application of the flood damage model RAilway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL)

Patric Kellermann,Annegret H Thieken,Christine Schönberger

doi:10.5194/nhess-16-2357-2016

Abstract

Abstract. Experience has shown that river floods can significantly hamper the reliability of railway networks and cause extensive structural damage and disruption. As a result, the national railway operator in Austria had to cope with financial losses of more than EUR 100 million due to flooding in recent years. Comprehensive information on potential flood risk hot spots as well as on expected flood damage in Austria is therefore needed for strategic flood risk management. In view of this, the flood damage model RAIL (RAilway Infrastructure Loss) was applied to estimate (1) the expected structural flood damage and (2) the resulting repair costs of railway infrastructure due to a 30-, 100- and 300-year flood in the Austrian Mur River catchment. The results were then used to calculate the expected annual damage of the railway subnetwork and subsequently analysed in terms of their sensitivity to key model assumptions. Additionally, the impact of risk aversion on the estimates was investigated, and the overall results were briefly discussed against the background of climate change and possibly resulting changes in flood risk. The findings indicate that the RAIL model is capable of supporting decision-making in risk management by providing comprehensive risk information on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that an increased risk aversion of the railway operator has a marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies.

Highlights

The railway transportation system in Austria is of major importance for the European transit of passengers and goods from north to south and east to west
The maps indicate that significant damage has to be expected for long stretches along the course of the Mur River and at track sections being located adjacent to certain tributaries: for example, it is estimated that the Liesing River flowing into the Mur River in the north of the study area causes extensive damage, i.e. in most cases classified as damage class 3, already on the basis of a 30-year flood scenario
The risk information obtained was investigated in terms of its sensitivity to changes in model assumptions and, evaluated while taking into consideration different degrees of risk aversion

Summary

Introduction

The railway transportation system in Austria is of major importance for the European transit of passengers and goods from north to south and east to west. The severe flooding in central Europe in May and June 2013 had even more serious consequences for the ÖBB, costing a total of more than EUR 75 million (ÖBB Infrastruktur AG, 2014), caused by heavy direct damage at multiple track sections as well as extensive service disruptions, including loss due to further rainfall-triggered events (e.g. debris flows, torrential processes). Such events clearly show that railway infrastructure and service are highly vulnerable to floods and point out the importance of a comprehensive flood risk management

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Discussion

Conclusion