Large-scale heat pumps for district heating systems in the Baltics: Potential and impact

Abstract

The current state of power-to-heat integration into the heat supply in the Baltics is examined. In the socio-economic analysis, three scenarios for prospective district heating electrification development in the Baltic countries until 2050 were investigated and compared: Baseline scenario, Grid Tariff scenario, and Investment Support scenario. Large-scale HPs were analysed as key future technologies. Furthermore, the results are focused on excess heat and renewable thermal energy sources used for heat supply, as well as expanding the representation of DH areas. In 2050, large-scale HPs will generate more than half of the heat for the Baltic states in the Baseline scenario, while biomass plants will generate one-third. One of the dominating fossil fuels in heat supply (natural gas) consumption should gradually decrease from 7.9 TWh in 2020 to 1.4 TWh in the same period. Large HPs generated the lowest quantity of heat in the Grid Tariff scenario. The current network tariffs in each of the Baltic countries, it may be inferred, are an impediment to the introduction of HPs. In 2050, only up to 1/4 of thermal energy will be produced by large-scale HPs. Investments in large-scale HPs are half-subsidised in the Investment Support scenario, which greatly affects the introduction of HPs, and, according to this scenario, in 2050, up to 68% of heat will be produced via HPs in the Baltic states. Detailed results are presented for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.