Large‐scale forcing over the homogeneous regions of summer rainfall anomalies in southern Africa

Abstract

AbstractFor the study region (southern Africa), regional and remote large‐scale climate forcing play vital roles in the seasonal rainfall variability. Thus, uncovering the nature of the relationship between large‐scale circulations and homogeneous regions of rainfall anomalies will enhance the predictability of seasonal rainfall at specific domains in southern Africa. Considering both land and adjacent oceans in southern Africa, six austral summer homogeneous regions of rainfall anomalies were classified using the rotated principal component analysis. The analysis of the physical processes associated with the modulation of the distinct rainfall variability patterns reveals that generally, regional variations in cyclonic/anticyclonic circulations and convergence/divergence in the adjacent oceans (and landmasses) modulate the regional convergence of moisture fluxes in southern Africa. Some classified rainfall variability patterns feature homogeneous landmasses that are contiguous with the adjacent ocean, revealing land and adjacent oceans that respond coherently to the large‐scale circulation anomalies associated with the time development of the rainfall variability pattern. Further, remote climate drivers were found to be distinctively related to the regionalized rainfall anomalies, implying that the respective homogeneous rainfall regions respond differently to the large‐scale forcing induced by the (remote) climate drivers over southern Africa. Specifically, among the climate drivers that influence the hydroclimate of southern Africa, variations in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation are relatively more associated with regionalized summer rainfall anomalies in southern Africa. Above‐average Nino 3.4 index (i.e., El Niño) negatively correlates with regionalized summer rainfall anomalies over large parts of southern Africa. The positive phase of the SAM positively correlates with rainfall anomaly in the homogeneous summer rainfall region comprising the subtropical parts of southern Africa and the homogeneous summer rainfall region comprising the western equatorial parts of the study region.