Large-scale flood risk assessment and management: Prospects of a systems approach

Abstract

Fluvial flood risk systems are characterized by complex interactions and feedbacks as well as subject to changes of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Disregarding spatial and temporal dependencies and changes in the components of risk introduces biases to risk estimates. A systems approach to large-scale flood risk assessment and management is proposed to account for the complexity and dynamic nature of flood risk. The systems approach provides methods and tools that offer a more comprehensive view to flood risk, reveal the relevant interactions, and quantify feedbacks in flood risk systems. Policymakers and flood risk managers can benefit from the systems approach in the development of comprehensive risk reduction strategies.