Abstract
To make informed flood risk management (FRM) decisions in large protected river systems, flood risk and hazard analyses should include the potential for dike breaching. ‘Load interdependency’ analyses attempt to include the system-wide effects of dike breaching while accounting for the uncertainty of both river loads and dike fragility. The intensive stochastic computation required for these analyses often precludes the use of complex hydraulic models, but simpler models may miss spatial inundation interactions such as flows that ‘cascade’ between compartmentalised regions and overland flows that ‘shortcut’ between river branches. The potential for these interactions in the Netherlands has previously been identified, and so a schematisation of the Dutch floodplain and protection system is here developed for use in a load interdependency analysis. The approach allows for the spatial distribution of hazard to be quantified under various scenarios and return periods. The results demonstrate the importance of including spatial inundation interactions on hazard estimation at three specific locations, and for the system in general. The modelling approach can be used at a local scale to focus flood-risk analysis and management on the relevant causes of inundation, and at a system-wide scale to estimate the overall impact of large-scale measures.
Highlights
In the flood hazard analysis of protected lowland river systems, the spatial and temporal changes in local and system-wide hazard due to dike breaches are often called ‘load interdependencies’ [1], ‘river system behaviour’ [2,3] or ‘system-risk’ [4]. Analysis of this behaviour has become more widespread in recent years, thanks, in part, to a ‘systems approach’ [5] to Flood Risk Management (FRM) being adopted
Examples of load interdependency analysis in FRM include those by Ciullo et al [6] and Dupuits et al [7,8], who demonstrated the importance of this behaviour when developing optimal management strategies
Much of the research into the field has focused on accurately identifying changes in hazard rather than flood risk
Summary
In the flood hazard analysis of protected lowland river systems, the spatial and temporal changes in local and system-wide hazard due to dike breaches are often called ‘load interdependencies’ [1], ‘river system behaviour’ [2,3] or ‘system-risk’ [4]. Analysis of this behaviour has become more widespread in recent years, thanks, in part, to a ‘systems approach’ [5] to Flood Risk Management (FRM) being adopted. In the Monte Carlo approach, within any given simulation of the system, the occurrence of a breach is deterministic and dependent on hydraulic loads and dike strengths sampled from distributions
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
