Abstract

Distributed water cycle simulation research under environment change is a important problem of earth system science.It is also the application foundation of regional water security and water resources risk management.This paper studied regional water cycle simulation,environment change and water security at Han River,Yellow River and Hai River which are linked with South-to-North Water Diversion Project..We focused on the research and prospects for the large-scale inter-basin water transfer distributed hydrological model(LDTVGM).There are two research purposes.Fisrt,to explore how to develop the large-scale inter-basin water transfer distributed hydrological model under changing environment.Second,to develop the theory and impact assessment methods about regional water cycle dynamics-nonlinear systems-multiple sources of uncertainty analysis.This study can provide a scientific basis for regional water resources security and risk management of countermeasures under climate change and high intensity of human activities and.

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