Abstract

The destruction of the Amazon is a major global environmental issue, not only because of greenhouse gas emissions or direct impacts on biodiversity and livelihoods, but also due to the forest’s role as a tipping element of the Earth System. It means that after crossing a biophysical threshold, currently estimated to be when approximately 25% of the Amazon forest cover has been lost (thus only 5% more than the current state), a dieback process will be triggered and transform much of the rainforest into a drier ecosystem, with climatic implications across the globe. There is a large body of literature on the underlying drivers of Amazon deforestation, showing complex interlinkages between natural and social processes. However, insufficient attention has been paid to the behavioral and institutional microfoundations of change. Fundamental issues concerning cooperation, or even coordination, as well as the mechanisms facilitating or hampering such actions, can play a much more central role in attempts to unravel and address Amazon deforestation. We thus present the issue of preventing the Amazon biome from crossing a tipping point as a large-scale collective action problem. Drawing from collective action theory, we apply a novel analytical framework to shed light on the challenges of Amazon conservation, identifying key stressors and facilitators for successful collective action. We examine the problem of Amazon deforestation in relation to six key variables: information, accountability, harmony of interests, horizontal trust, knowledge about consequences, and sense of responsibility. An assessment of the state-of-the-art literature on Amazon land use through our heuristic lens shows that, while growing transparency has made information availability a collective action facilitator, lack of accountability, distrust among actors, and little sense of responsibility for halting deforestation, remain key stressors. We finalize by discussing numerous (third-party) interventions that can help break the gridlock and ignite successful collective action.

Highlights

  • The renewed rise in deforestation of the Amazon, along with its 2019 and 2020 forest fires, again brought global attention to the peril of its disappearance—the steady loss of the largest remaining tropical forest on the planet

  • We argue that preventing the Amazon biome from crossing a biophysical tipping point can be understood as a large-scale collective action problem, and elab­ orate on a novel analytical framework for understanding the challenges of large-scale collective action (Jagers et al, 2020)

  • We conclude the paper by showing how breaking down the problem of Amazon deforestation into smaller subproblems may foster more concerted targeted actions and, help avoid its biophysical tipping point

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Summary

Introduction

The renewed rise in deforestation of the Amazon, along with its 2019 and 2020 forest fires, again brought global attention to the peril of its disappearance—the steady loss of the largest remaining tropical forest on the planet. Conversion of the rainforest to a dry ecosystem could release up to 90 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by 2100 (Steffen et al, 2018), constituting more than a fifth of the remaining carbon budget from 2021 onward if we are to limit warming to 1.5 ◦C (with 67% certainty; IPCC, 2018) It would have direct impacts on global atmospheric circulation patterns, potentially intensifying warming across Central and East Asia, including the large agricultural area of northeast China (Snyder, 2010; Werth and Avissar, 2004). We argue that preventing the Amazon biome from crossing a biophysical tipping point can be understood as a large-scale collective action problem, and elab­ orate on a novel analytical framework for understanding the challenges of large-scale collective action (Jagers et al, 2020) This analysis can provide insights into the lack of concerted action to halt forest loss in the region, as well as help identify actions by different actors that can facilitate collective action to provide lasting support for Amazon conservation. We conclude the paper by showing how breaking down the problem of Amazon deforestation into smaller subproblems may foster more concerted targeted actions and, help avoid its biophysical tipping point

Background: introducing a large-scale collective action framework
Collective action facilitators
Collective action stressors
Large-scale collective action problems and the need for third-party interventions
Stressors and facilitators as variables: a framework for analysis
Amazon deforestation as a large-scale collective action problem
Information
Accountability
Harmony of interests
Horizontal trust
Knowledge about consequences
Sense of responsibility
Summing up the Amazon challenge in terms of collective-action variables
Third-party interventions in the Amazon case
Interventions to improve information
Interventions to improve accountability
Interventions to harmonize interests
Interventions to improve horizontal trust
Interventions to improve knowledge of consequences
Interventions to improve actors’ sense of responsibility
Findings
Conclusions
Full Text
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