Large-scale coherence in New England lobster (Homarus americanus), settlement and associations with regional atmospheric conditions

Abstract

Time series of American lobster (Homarus americanus) postlarval settlement from southern New England to Atlantic Canada exhibit many common features, and a cluster analysis indicates a block of regions extending from Massachusetts to Maine that have coherent interannual variations. The spatial scale of this block suggests that variability in settlement is related to large-scale, rather than local, processes. We examined the association between settlement at six reference regions and monthly mean atmospheric conditions (temperature, geopotential height, westerly and southerly wind components, and wind curl) from the North American Regional Reanalysis. We first extracted the dominant modes of variability in monthly averaged geopotential height, temperature, and wind curl. The leading mode from September, which represents high geopotential height, warm temperatures, and negative wind curl throughout the study area, was strongly correlated with settlement at most of the regions. The third mode from August, which represents enhanced southwesterly winds, was correlated with settlement in Rhode Island. Correlations between local atmospheric conditions and lobster settlement confirm the principal component results. Settlement was correlated to varying degrees with geopotential height (positive), temperature (positive) and wind curl (negative) with lobster settlement at the northern sites, with temperature being a stronger indicator in the north and curl a stronger indicator in the south. Rhode Island settlement was strongly correlated with August westerly winds. The correlation between settlement and atmospheric conditions could improve our understanding of stock-recruit relationships for lobster populations and provides one mechanism for how climate change could impact lobsters.