Large-Scale Affordable CO2 Capture Is Possible by 2030

Abstract

Summary Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an important option for any “lowest cost” transition to a decarbonized global economy. China, given its large CO2 footprint and strong dependence on coal, is a particularly important player. In this study, we show a pathway for affordable deployment of CO2 capture in the Chinese power sector scaling to greater than 100 million tCO2 per year by 2030 at an avoided cost of less than $37/tCO2. We show that the distribution of costs across a fleet of power plants presents an underappreciated opportunity to reduce costs and that several avenues are available in the existing policy and market regime to further reduce the net avoided cost of capture to as low as $25/tCO2 for some plants. This means the rate of deployment of CCS in China will likely be limited by the maturation of transport and storage, rather than the cost of capture.