Large-sample detection of reservoir impacts on flow regime alteration through improved paired-catchment approach

Abstract

The 20th century witnessed a substantial surge in global reservoir construction, representing a significant milestone and resulting in a profound anthropogenic alteration of flow regimes. Despite this surge, a comprehensive large-sample quantification of reservoir impacts on flow regime alteration has been impeded by limitations in statistical and modeling methodologies. Here we present an improved paired-catchment method tailored to discern the impact of reservoirs on flow regime within the context of climate change. Employing this method, we identified and analyzed 177 paired catchments from a selection of over 12,000 global catchments. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of the improved method, demonstrating that reservoirs predominantly alleviate high flows while enhancing low flows. This serves to moderate the annual periodicity of streamflow signals while amplifying their low-frequency components. Furthermore, predetermined water releases play a significant role in diminishing the seasonality of low flows and reducing the sensitivity of runoff to precipitation. Additionally, the extent of flow regime alteration caused by reservoirs is closely linked to their functionalities and regulatory capacity. For example, reservoirs designed for irrigation and water supply show minimal enhancement of low flow values, while the magnitude of reservoir-induced changes rises with higher regulatory capacity. The improved method can be further employed in the future to investigate the impact of reservoirs on extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods. It emerges as a crucial scientific tool for effective water resource management and the mitigation of water-related disasters in the Anthropocene era.