Abstract
High energy and material demand in the building sector causes large greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This sector needs large-scale technological improvements in the transition to a future low-emission society. Extensive research is carried out on highly energy-efficient and zero emission buildings (ZEB), but the new technologies slowly penetrate the market. Until now, no bottom-up studies have applied a dynamic building stock energy model at the national level to quantify effects of a large-scale ZEB introduction. Using the RE-BUILDS 2.0 model, we explore and extensively discuss the aggregated potential for energy and GHG emission savings in the Norwegian building stock towards 2050. A Baseline scenario is compared with two ZEB scenarios assuming introduction of the ZEB definition and ZEB technologies applied in the future new built and renovated buildings, with an increased ambition level over time. The results reveal a large potential for energy and GHG emission savings of ZEB deployment towards 2050. Hence, stricter future regulations and practice will have important aggregated effects. Due to the long lifetime of buildings and potential lock-in effects, it is urgent that ZEB policies are implemented if the climate change mitigation potential of the Norwegian building stock is going to be reached.
Highlights
The building sector accounts for almost one third of the total global final energy use and more than half of the final electricity demand
This study examines the possible effects of large-scale implementa tion of the zero emission buildings (ZEB) definition and advanced renovation in the Norwegian building stock
The building sector contributes to substantial parts of global energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
Summary
The building sector accounts for almost one third of the total global final energy use and more than half of the final electricity demand. About one fourth of global direct and indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions originates from the building sector (International Energy Agency, 2017). The building sector can contribute significantly to climate change mitigation targets through large-scale energy efficiency measures and decarbonizing its final energy mix (Lucon et al, 2014). Mitigation pathways consistent with a 2 ◦C future in integrated assessment models are reliant on a large-scale electrification of the global building sector and on energy savings from improvements of building envelopes and appliances (Rogelj et al, 2018). The need for pushing new and ambitious building standards becomes relatively more important in low energy demand scenarios meeting strict climate targets without using negative emission technologies (Grubler et al, 2018). Extensive research has been done on the design and technical solutions of Zero energy or emission buildings. Literature offers studies on the cost aspects of these buildings compared to traditional buildings (Hu, 2019), and of selected technical solutions (Li et al, 2019)
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