Large long-haul aircraft entry, survival, and exit in China's air transport market: The Airbus 380 and Boeing 747-8I

Abstract

This study explores the dynamics of entry, survival, and exit of large long-haul aircraft in China's burgeoning air transport market, focusing on the Airbus 380 and Boeing 747–8I as case studies. Utilizing rare events logistic regression and the time-dependent Cox regression model, the determinants of route entrance and survival for these aircraft from 2011 to 2021 were analyzed. The data is based on the flight plans of pertinent air routes and aircraft. Key findings include: (1) Both aircraft types favored entry into home-airfield-related, long-haul routes with a substantial existing flight volume. (2) Both aircraft exhibited prolonged survival on international long-haul routes, especially when airlines used them to bolster market share with consistent frequency. (3) Without the home-airfield advantage enjoyed by Air China, China Southern Airlines trialed the Airbus 380 on multiple occasions. Notably, if the Airbus 380 maintains operation on a route for at least 16 weeks, it demonstrates a lower likelihood of exit compared to the Boeing 747–8I.