Large Earthquake Prediction Methods

Abstract

At the present time rather diverse and interesting papers are published on the basis of ground-based and satellite data of earth VLF/LF and ULF electromagnetic (EM) emissions observed during earthquake preparation period. These phenomena are detectable both at laboratory and geological scale. Today in some seismic active countries of the world the network for collecting VLF/LF electromagnetic emissions generated during the process of the earthquake preparation has been organized. Permanent monitoring of frequency spectrum of earth VLF/LF electromagnetic emissions might turn out very useful with the view of prediction of large M ≥ 5 inland earthquakes. To prove the prediction capabilities of earth electromagnetic emissions authors have used avalanche-like unstable model of fault formation and an analogous model of electromagnetic contour, synthesis of which, is rather harmonious. According to the opinion of the authors EM emissions observed during earthquake preparation period are more universal and reliable than other earthquake indicators. In the presented paper, the possible methods of the large earthquake prediction are offered on the base of the European Network of Electromagnetic Radiation (INFREP) data existent before Crete earthquake with M = 5.6 (25/05/2016, 08:36:13 UTC) earthquake. Offered methods are capable of simultaneous determination of all three parameters necessary for incoming M ≥ 5 inland large earthquake prediction (magnitude, epicenter and time of occurring) with certain accuracy.