Abstract

We consider the branching random walk $(Z_n)_{n \geq 0}$ on $\mathbb{R}$ where the underlying motion is of a simple random walk and branching is at least binary and at most decaying exponentially in law. For a large class of measurable sets $A \subseteq \mathbb{R}$, it is well known that $\overline{Z}_n(\sqrt{n} A) \to \nu(A)$ almost surely as $n \to \infty$, where $\overline{Z}_n$ is the particles empirical distribution at generation $n$ and $\nu$ is the standard Gaussian measure on $\mathbb{R}$. We therefore analyze the rate at which $\mathbb{P}(\overline{Z}_n(\sqrt{n}A) > \nu(A) + \epsilon)$ and $\mathbb{P}(\overline{Z}_n(\sqrt{n}A) < \nu(A) - \epsilon)$ go to zero for any $\epsilon > 0$. We show that the decay is doubly exponential in either $n$ or $\sqrt{n}$, depending on $A$ and $\epsilon$ and find the leading coefficient in the top exponent. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time such large deviation probabilities are treated in this model.

Highlights

  • Introduction and ResultsIn this work we analyze the decay of probabilities of certain unlikely deviation events involving the Branching Random Walk ( BRW)

  • As far as we know, very little has been done in this direction, after optimal law of large numbers and central limit theorem type results have been fully obtained, both the question and the events we consider seem to us natural and fundamental

  • The case of P(|Z1| ≥ 2) < 1 is an interesting problem, it is of a different nature as it permits using strategies which suppress the branching in order to realize large deviation events

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Summary

Introduction and Results

In this work we analyze the decay of probabilities of certain unlikely deviation events involving the Branching Random Walk ( BRW). The BRW model traces the evolution by means of reproduction and motion of a population of particles on the real line, carried out synchronously in discrete steps or generations. We denote by Zn ( the particles measure) the population at time n = 0, 1, . Which we describe as a point measure on R with a mass 1 per particle. One may consider any law for Z1, often and in this paper as well, attention is restricted to evolution by means of independent reproduction and motion. Despite the old age of this model it is still quite central in pure and applied probability. It remains a popular model for describing and analyzing phenomena in various applied disciplines, such as biology, population dynamics and computer science. For the classical theory of BRW, we direct the reader to the survey by Ney [22] and the books by Révész [25], Harris [15], and Asmussen and Hering [3]

Known Results
Assumptions
Main Theorems
Idea of Proof
Extension to higher dimensions
A bit more notation
Preliminaries
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