Large Day-to-Day Variability of Extreme Air Temperatures in Poland and Its Dependency on Atmospheric Circulation

Katarzyna Szyga-Pluta

doi:10.3390/atmos12010080

Abstract

The primary purpose of the study was the determination of the spatial day-to-day variability of extreme air temperatures in Poland and the dependency of large temperature changes on atmospheric circulation in accordance with the Grosswetterlagen (GWL) classification. The goal was achieved based on data from 1966 to 2015, made available by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute. Day-to-day changes in maximum and minimum air temperatures were designated with a rate of ≥6 °C (large) and with a rate of ≥12 °C (very large) and their spatial distribution was presented. Finally, the analysis of the dependency of considerable temperature changes on atmospheric circulation in accordance with the Grosswetterlagen (GWL) classification was conducted. The obtained results showed that in Poland in the period 1966–2015 there was a statistically significant increase in the number of large changes in both Tmax and Tmin. The number of large changes in Tmax increases from north to south, and the number of large changes in Tmin from north to east and south of Poland indicate the range of the effect of marine and continental properties on the climate of Poland and the influence of local relief as well as the atmospheric circulation impact. Large changes in Tmax occur more frequently in spring and in Tmin in winter. Large changes in Tmax and Tmin are mainly recorded during cyclonic circulation, however, the anticyclonic circulation types favour especially large decreases in Tmin.

Highlights

The observed contemporary climate warming is visible in the increase of the average global air temperature [1]
Mean day-to-day changes in temperature: maximum (Tmax) increased from the north to the south of the country and ranged from 2.1 ◦C in the Baltic Sea coast (Łeba, Swinoujscie), to 2.7 ◦C at the foothill of Tatra Mountains (Zakopane)
Mean absolute changes in the minimum (Tmin) were lowest in the western part of Poland and increased south- and eastwards generally except for the central-eastern area, which is characterised by rather lower values

Summary

Introduction

The observed contemporary climate warming is visible in the increase of the average global air temperature [1]. The values of minimum and maximum temperatures increase. These result in day-to-day variability of maximum and minimum air temperatures. It is worth emphasizing that variations in minimum temperatures are usually greater than those in maximum temperatures [3,4]. The variability of such changes in a year is probably uneven. The greatest day-to-day changes in temperature are related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Higher values of the NAO index are usually related to higher temperatures and to lower day-to-day variability [3]. It was pointed out that extreme values of air temperature are associated with anticyclonic circulation and strong highs blocking the zonal circulation, which in recent decades have been increasingly occurring over Europe, and are of particular importance [7,8,9]

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