Large Capital Infusions, Investor Reactions, and the Return and Risk Performance of Financial Institutions Over the Business Cycle and Recent Financial Crisis

Abstract

The authors examine investors' reactions to announcements of large seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) by U.S. financial institutions (FIs) from 2000 to 2009. These offerings include market infusions as well as injections of government capital under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). The sample period covers both business cycle expansions and contractions, and the recent financial crisis. They present evidence on the factors affecting FI decisions to issue capital, the determinants of investor reactions, and post-SEO performance of issuers as well as a sample of matching FIs. The authors find that investors reacted negatively to the news of private market SEOs by FIs, both in the immediate term (e.g., the two days surrounding the announcement) and over the subsequent year, but positively to TARP injections. Reactions differed depending on the characteristics of the FIs, stage of the business cycle, and conditions of financial crisis. Larger institutions were less likely to have raised capital through market offerings during the period prior to TARP, and firms receiving a TARP injection tended to be larger than other issuers. The authors find that while TARP may have allowed FIs to increase their lending (as a share of assets) in the year after the issuance, they took on more credit risk to do so. They find no evidence that banks' capital adequacy increased after the capital injections.