Abstract
the analyses. Computer-calculated annual simulations of the time stream of standard economic indicators are presented, including employment, personal incomes, taxes, savings, industrial sector output, gross state product, and prices of natural gas, electricity, and petroleum products. Projections are made of both aggregate energy demand and individual fuel demands by user class for each of five policy variables and eight parameter estimates. The impacts of reducing exports of crude oil and natural gas as compared with increasing imports when supplies are short can be estimated. The magnitude of fuel substitution from changing relative prices of fuels can be estimated for the current technology of use for natural gas, petroleum products, coal, and nuclear fuels. The impacts of prices, fuel substitutions, and oil imports are determined, and results indicate that the key policy options are domestic wellhead price regulation and Federal import tax fees or quotas. 22 references.
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