Landslides behavior spatial modeling by using evidential belief function model, Promethean II model, and index of entropy in Tabriz, Iran

Abstract

Due to the increasing construction of clay and marl hills in most areas of Tabriz (Iran), its characteristics in terms of resistance, and its tendency to liquefy during earthquakes, this city is at risk of landslides. This paper studies the landslide vulnerability of Tabriz using visual and statistical evidence. The evaluation of landslide susceptibility was performed using the evidential belief function model (EBF) and the index of entropy. The environmental impact assessment of landslides was carried out using the Promethean II model in three environmental, economic, and social phases. Finally, a landslide strategy plan for decision-makers was developed. The results of the analysis using the EBF model showed that 89.81% of the total area of Tabriz is located in a direct landslide vulnerability zone. The output of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve showed 83.3% accuracy of the EBF model. The impact assessment showed that for the environment, the geological criterion had an output weight of 0.396; for the economy, the road criterion had a weight of 0.477; and for the society, the commercial criterion had a weight of a 0.452; all were the most affected by landslides. The results of monitoring studies of the largest landslides in Tabriz in 1957, 1984, and 2020 showed approximately 41.65 m of land sliding over a period of 63 years. To our knowledge, this study is the first in the world to predict the environmental impact assessment and provide a strategy plan for Tabriz.