Landslide susceptibility mapping and hazard assessment in Artvin (Turkey) using frequency ratio and modified information value model

Abstract

Landslides cause loss of lives and serious material damage almost every year around the world. In Turkey, risks related to landslides increase due to the combined effects of climate change, deforestation, uncontrolled urbanization and improper land use. Artvin is among the cities where landslides occur most frequently due to its topographical and geological characteristics. In the present study, landslide susceptibility of the Central district of Artvin was evaluated using the frequency ratio (FR) and modified information value (MIV) models. In the study, ten parameters affecting the occurrence of landslides were considered. 70% of the landslide inventories were utilized to create susceptibility maps, and the remaining 30% were utilized for validation. The success and prediction capabilities of the models were assessed using the receiver operating characteristics curve and area under the curve. The success rates of the MIV and FR models were calculated as 88% and 84.9%, respectively, and the prediction rates were computed as 82.7% and 81.9%, correspondingly. The MIV model showed a slightly better performance compared to the FR model in terms of prediction and success rates. It was also determined that most of the village built-up areas, as well as the majority of the planned areas of the Artvin Municipality and majority of the public and private buildings within the municipal boundaries, were located in landslide susceptible zones. Therefore, the outcomes of the present study may assist local administrators, planners, and engineers in reducing the damage caused by landslides and planning the optimal land use.