Abstract
This study aims to build a landslide susceptibility map (LSM) by using certainty factor (CF) models for mitigation of landslide hazards and mitigation for people who live near to the forest. In the study area, the mountainous area of the Ujung-loe watersheds of South Sulawesi, Indonesia, information on landslides were derived from aerial photography using time series data images from Google Earth Pro© from 2012 to 2016 and field surveys. The LSM was built by using a CF model with eleven causative factors. The results indicated that the causative factor with the highest impact on the probability of landslide occurrence is the class of change from dense vegetation to sparse vegetation (4-1), with CF value 0.95. The CF method proved to be an excellent method for producing a landslide susceptibility map for mitigation with an area under curve (AUC) success rate of 0.831, and AUC predictive rate 0.830 and 85.28% of landslides validation fell into the high to very high class. In conclusion, correlations between landslide occurrence with causative factors shows an overall highest LUC causative factor related to the class of change from dense vegetation to sparse vegetation, resulting in the highest probability of landslide occurrence. Thus, forest areas uses at these locations should prioritize maintaining dense vegetation and involving the community in protection measures to reduce the occurrence of landslide risk. LSM models that apply certainty factors can serve as guidelines for mitigation of people living in this area to pay attention to landslide hazards with high and very high landslide vulnerability and to be careful to avoid productive activities at those locations.
Highlights
Landslide susceptibility map (LSM) is a very useful tool and plays a vital role in estimating, managing and mitigation landslide hazards (Chau and Chan, 2005; Dou et al, 2015)
In the relation between landslide occurrence with elevation causative factor indicates that elevations between 1000 to 2000 meters (m) has a probability of landslide occurrence with certainty factor (CF) value from 0.29 – 0.66
Causative factor of slope indicates slope class of above 50°, 40°-50°, 30°-40° and class 20°-30° has a CF value 0.810, 0.752, 0.325 and 0.006 respectively, which indicates a high belief of probability of landslide occurrence for slope below 20° has a CF value
Summary
Landslide susceptibility map (LSM) is a very useful tool and plays a vital role in estimating, managing and mitigation landslide hazards (Chau and Chan, 2005; Dou et al, 2015). The qualitative model contributes to susceptibility levels in descriptive terms, with the main limitation that accuracy depends on the knowledge of the expert who conduct the research (Dou et al, 2015; Neuhäuser and Terhorst, 2007). CF is used to build a landslide susceptibility map (LSM) by using certainty factor (CF) models for mitigation of landslide hazards.
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