Abstract

Landslides are common natural disasters in Bogor, Indonesia, triggered by a combination of factors including slope aspect, soil type and bedrock lithology, land cover and land use, and hydrologic conditions. In the Bogor area, slopes with volcanic lithologies are more susceptible to failure. GIS mapping and analysis using a Frequency Ratio Model was implemented in this study to assess the contribution of conditioning factors to landslides, and to produce a landslide susceptibility map of the study area. A landslide inventory map was prepared from a database of historic landslides events. In addition, thematic maps (soil, rainfall, land cover, and geology map) and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) were prepared to examine landslide conditioning factors. A total of 173 landslides points were mapped in the area and randomly subdivided into a training set (70%) with 116 points and test set with 57 points (30%). The relationship between landslides and conditioning factors was statistically evaluated with FR analysis. The result shows that lithology, soil, and land cover are the most important factors generating landslides. FR values were used to produce the Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI) and the study area was divided into five zones of relative landslide susceptibility. The result of landslide susceptibility from the mid-region area of Bogor to the southern part was categorized as moderate to high landslide susceptibility zones. The results of the analysis have been validated by calculating the Area Under a Curve (AUC), which shows an accuracy of success rate of 90.10% and an accuracy of prediction rate curve of 87.30%, which indicates a high-quality susceptibility map obtained from the FR model.

Highlights

  • Landslides are defined as an event or series of events where a mass of rocks, soil, or debris moves down a slope

  • Lithology Landslide occurrences and geology were mapped in the field to establish a landslide inventory and a geological map

  • Lithology plays an important role in the occurrence of landslides because it affects the strength and permeability properties of the bedrock associated with slope

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Summary

Introduction

Landslides are defined as an event or series of events where a mass of rocks, soil, or debris moves down a slope. Landslides are one of the most common natural disasters experienced in Bogor, Jawa Barat, Indonesia. A landslide can be influenced by various factors such as slope conditions and slope angle, lithology, soil type, and hydrologic or meteorological conditions. Another potential factor is induced by human. From 2014 to 2018, there has been a significant increase in the number of landslide events in Bogor, with an increase from approximately 20 events in a year to over 60 events in a year. The increase in frequency of landslide events has led to an increase in casualties, with 39 deaths and 48 injuries recorded since 2014

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