Abstract
The importance of scenario investigation in landslide-related hazard mitigation planning has long been recognized, where numerical simulation with physics-based models plays a crucial role because of its quantitative information. However, a plausible failure surface is a prerequisite in conducting the numerical simulation, but it often has a high degree of uncertainty due to the complex geological structure. The present study is devoted to proposing a methodology to mimic the plausible landslide failure surface (with some uncertainty) for investigating the consequent flow paths when failure takes place. Instead of a spherical shape, an idealized curved surface (ICS) is used, where two constant curvatures are, respectively, assigned in the down-slope and cross-slope directions. A reference ellipse is introduced for constructing the associated ICS with a specified failure depth regarding these two curvatures. Through translating, rotating, or side-tilting the reference ellipse, the most appropriate ICS is figured out with respect to the assigned constraints (failure area, volume of released mass, depth of sliding interface, etc.). The feasibility and practicability of this ellipse–ICS method are examined by application to a historical landslide event and one landslide-prone area. In application to the historical event, the fitness versus the landslide scarp area and its impacts on the consequent flow paths are investigated. For the landslide-prone area, five scenarios are arranged based on the surface features and the records of gaging wells. The most plausible failure scenario is therefore suggested as the prerequisite for mimicking the consequential flow paths.
Highlights
Landslides, either with fast movement or in creeping motion, together with the sequential mass movement, pose severe threats to human lives as well as infrastructures in mountain areas (Dong et al, 2011; Lin et al, 2011; Iverson et al, 2015; Zhang et al, 2018; Sala et al, 2021; Van Tien et al, 2021)
We propose to construct the idealized curved surface (ICS) based on the reference ellipse, which fits the source area
This work outlines a methodology to systematically estimate the plausible landslide failure area, the associated volume of released mass, and the subsequent flow paths when the failure in an area of landslide susceptibility takes place. This method employs the concept of reference ellipse for constructing the idealized curved surface (ICS)
Summary
Landslides, either with fast movement or in creeping motion, together with the sequential mass movement, pose severe threats to human lives as well as infrastructures in mountain areas (Dong et al, 2011; Lin et al, 2011; Iverson et al, 2015; Zhang et al, 2018; Sala et al, 2021; Van Tien et al, 2021). One can recognize, thanks to the modern techniques of remote sensing (light detection and ranging (LiDAR), interferometric synthetic-aperture radar (InSAR), uninhabited aerial vehicle SAR (UAVSAR), or temporarily coherent point interferometry SAR (TCPInSAR), etc.), the tiny geomorphological features on the surface, such as cracks or minor scarps, for identifying and delineating the potential landslide sites (Lin et al, 2013; Stumpf et al, 2013; Delbridge et al, 2016; Lai, 2019; Wang, 2020) Along this direction, assessing the associated landslide volume and the consequential influence area is essential in disaster mitigation planning in which numerical simulation can serve as a powerful tool in scenario investigation. The proposed ellipse–ICS approach provides the freedom of flexible coverage for minimizing the discrepancy
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