Landslide Risks to Bridges in Valleys in North Carolina

Abstract

This research delves into the intricate dynamics of landslides, emphasizing their consequences on transportation infrastructure, specifically highways and roadway bridges in North Carolina. Based on a prior investigation of bridges in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria, we found that bridges above water and situated in valleys can be exposed to both landslide and flooding risks. These bridges faced heightened vulnerability to combined landslides and flooding events due to their low depth on the water surface and the potential for raised flood heights due to upstream landslides. Leveraging a dataset spanning more than a century and inclusive of landslide and bridge information, we employed logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF) models to predict landslide susceptibility in North Carolina. The study considered conditioning factors such as elevation, aspect, slope, rainfall, distance to faults, and distance to rivers, yielding LR and RF models with accuracy rates of 76.3% and 82.7%, respectively. To establish that a bridge’s location is at the bottom of a valley, data including landform, slope, and elevation difference near the bridge location were combined to delineate a bridge in a valley. The difference between bridge height and the lowest river elevation is established as an assumed flooding potential (AFP), which is then used to quantify the flooding risk. Compared to traditional flood risk values, the AFP, reported in elevation differences, is more straightforward and helps bridge engineers visualize the flood risk to a bridge. Specifically, a bridge (NCDOT ID: 740002) is found susceptible to both landslide (92%) and flooding (AFT of 6.61 m) risks and has been validated by field investigation, which is currently being retrofitted by North Carolina DOT with slope reinforcements (soil nailing and grouting). This paper is the first report evaluating the multi-hazard issue of bridges in valleys. The resulting high-fidelity risk map for North Carolina can help bridge engineers in proactive maintenance planning. Future endeavors will extend the analysis to incorporate actual flooding risk susceptibility analysis, thus enhancing our understanding of multi-hazard impacts and guiding resilient mitigation strategies for transportation infrastructure.