Landslide-hazard mapping through multi-technique activity assessment: an example from the Betic Cordillera (southern Spain)

Abstract

Landslide hazard in a region limited to data from a regional scale about triggering factors is assessed via cross tabulation between determining factors and landslides with recent activity. Firstly, landslide susceptibility was evaluated and validated through a bivariate statistical method between the previously identified stability conditioning factors and the mapped landslides. In this way, the most susceptible areas for assessing landslide hazards were selected. The main problem to solve in this type of research is the landslide activity. For this purpose, several techniques were applied: news reports, differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar, digital photogrammetry, light detection and ranging, photointerpretation, and dendrochronology. Both the strong and weak points of these techniques are also mentioned. The landslide return period was computed via the association between landslide activity and triggering factors, in this case annual rainfall. Finally, landslide hazard was mapped solely based on landslides with recent activity and their computed return period. The relationship between landslide occurrence and triggering factors shows that, according to both the considered assumptions and the observations made, deep-seated landslides are triggered or reactivated together with superficial landslides once every 18 years, while superficial landslides as flows or falls occur once every 5 years. The results show that there is generally a low landslide hazard in the study zone, especially when compared to landslide susceptibility. This means that landslides are mainly dormant from a natural evolution point of view, but could be reactivated as a result of geomorphological, climate, or human changes. In any case, the landslide hazard is successfully assessed, with a prediction of a 6% annual probability of a high hazard in 5% of the area, intersecting with the main infrastructures of the region; thus, control strategies are justified in order to avoid damage in extraordinary rainfall periods.