Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on Time-Frequency Analysis and LMD-BiLSTM Model

Abstract

In landslide displacement prediction, random factors that would affect the performance of prediction are usually ignored by using a time series analysis method. In order to solve this problem, in this paper, a landslide displacement prediction model, the local mean decomposition-bidirectional long short-term memory (LMD-BiLSTM), is proposed based on the time-frequency analysis method. The model uses the local mean decomposition (LMD) algorithm to decompose landslide displacement and obtains several subsequences of landslide displacement with different frequencies. This paper analyzes the internal relationship between the landslide displacement and rainfall, reservoir water level, and landslide state. The maximum information coefficient (MIC) algorithm is used to calculate the intrinsic correlation between each subsequence of landslide displacement and rainfall, reservoir water level, and landslide state. Subsequences of influential factors with high correlation are selected as input variables of the bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model to predict each subsequence. Finally, the predicted results of each of the subsequences are added to obtain the final predicted displacement. The proposed LMD-BiLSTM model effectiveness is verified based on the Baishuihe landslide. The prediction results and evaluation indexes show that the model can accurately predict landslide displacement.